- If you are wondering whether EMCOR Group is still reasonably priced after a strong run, this article walks through what the numbers suggest about its current valuation.
- The stock last closed at US$709.91, with returns of 0.6% over 7 days, an 11.2% gain year to date, 83.1% over 1 year, and a very large gain over 5 years.
- Recent coverage around EMCOR has focused on its role as a large US capital goods and services provider, including ongoing contracts and project work that help explain why the share price has attracted attention. These updates give useful context for thinking about how much investors are currently willing to pay for that business profile.
- On our framework, EMCOR scores 6 out of 6 on valuation checks, suggesting it screens as undervalued across each measure. You can see the detailed breakdown in this valuation score. We will compare that with traditional multiples and cash flow views before finishing with a more complete way to think about what the stock might be worth.
Find out why EMCOR Group's 83.1% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.
Approach 1: EMCOR Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow model takes the cash EMCOR Group is expected to generate in the future, then discounts those cash flows back to today to estimate what the whole business could be worth in $.
For EMCOR Group, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about $1.20b. Using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, analysts have provided estimates out to 2028, and cash flows through 2035 are then extrapolated. By 2030, projected free cash flow is $2.15b, with intermediate annual figures between 2026 and 2035 ranging from about $1.31b to $2.93b before discounting.
When all of these projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $916.52 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $709.91, this implies a 22.5% discount. On this DCF view, EMCOR Group appears to be trading below this intrinsic value estimate.
Result: UNDERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests EMCOR Group is undervalued by 22.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 48 more high quality undervalued stocks.
Approach 2: EMCOR Group Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like EMCOR Group, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. Investors usually accept a higher or lower P/E depending on how they see the company’s growth prospects and risk profile, so there is no single “correct” P/E in isolation.
EMCOR Group currently trades on a P/E of 24.84x. That sits below the Construction industry average P/E of 32.86x and also below the peer group average of 56.71x. On the surface, that suggests investors are paying a lower price for EMCOR Group’s earnings than for many comparable companies.
Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for EMCOR Group is 34.92x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be, given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, risks, industry, and market cap. Because it is tailored to the company’s fundamentals rather than broad groupings, the Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or an industry average. With the current P/E at 24.84x versus a Fair Ratio of 34.92x, the shares screen as trading below this Fair Ratio estimate.
Result: UNDERVALUED
P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 18 top founder-led companies.
Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your EMCOR Group Narrative
Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you turn your view of EMCOR Group into a clear story linked to a forecast and a fair value. You can then compare that fair value with the current share price, see how other investors’ Narratives differ, and watch those views update automatically as new earnings or news arrive, whether you lean closer to a bullish fair value like US$900 per share or a more cautious view around US$468.79.
For EMCOR Group however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading EMCOR Group Narratives:
Fair value in this bullish Narrative: US$772.00 per share
Implied discount vs last close: about 8.1% below that fair value
Assumed revenue growth: 8.35% a year
- Analysts model higher 2026 payouts and buybacks, with a higher fair value tied to updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, margins, and future P/E.
- The story leans on a large and diversified backlog, ongoing sector demand, and M&A to support earnings, while acknowledging risks from labor costs, integration, and exposure to cyclical end markets.
- Recent research lifts fair value slightly, with bullish analysts seeing the current share price as close to what they regard as a reasonable range, although they still stress that investors should test the inputs against their own expectations.
Fair value in this cautious Narrative: US$468.79 per share
Implied premium vs last close: about 51.4% above that fair value
Assumed revenue growth: 9% a year
- This Narrative values EMCOR at US$468.79 using a 9% revenue growth rate, 6.5% net margin, a 20x P/E multiple, and an 8% discount rate, which together point to a lower intrinsic value than the current share price.
- The author sees solid long term demand drivers in infrastructure spending, data centers, electrification, reshoring, and disciplined capital allocation, but treats these as already reflected in the valuation.
- Key risks highlighted include economic slowdowns, labor shortages and wage pressure, reliance on government spending, supply chain and cost inflation, and cyclical, competitive industry conditions that could pressure margins and project volumes.
Do you think there's more to the story for EMCOR Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com