Scotts Miracle-Gro stock snapshot after recent performance
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) has drawn fresh attention after a mixed stretch in its share performance, with a 2.2% gain over the past day contrasting with weaker returns over the past month.
See our latest analysis for Scotts Miracle-Gro.
The recent 1-day share price return of 2.2% to US$60.96 comes after a softer 30-day share price return of 9.29% and a modest year to date share price return of 2.57%. The 1-year total shareholder return of 5.24% contrasts with weaker 3 and 5 year total shareholder returns, suggesting short term momentum is improving but longer term holders have had a tougher run.
If the move in Scotts Miracle-Gro has you thinking about where else capital is flowing, it could be a good moment to look at 18 top founder-led companies as another source of ideas.
With Scotts Miracle-Gro trading at US$60.96, below an average analyst price target of US$75.50 and an estimated intrinsic value gap of about 14%, investors may ask whether there is a buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative: 40.2% Overvalued
According to the most followed narrative, Scotts Miracle-Gro's fair value sits at $43.49, well below the last close at $60.96, which sets up a clear valuation gap.
This is not a hypergrowth story. It is a durability story. As food security, indoor agriculture, and yield efficiency gain importance globally, companies with cultivation expertise stand to benefit quietly rather than explosively.
Want to see how a durability story supports this valuation call? The fair value leans heavily on earnings power, margin resilience, and a future profit multiple that might surprise you. Curious which assumptions carry the most weight in that model? The full narrative lays out the numbers behind that $43.49 figure.
Result: Fair Value of $43.49 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this durability angle could be challenged if cannabis cultivation remains pressured for longer or if higher input costs squeeze growers and dampen demand for premium systems.
Find out about the key risks to this Scotts Miracle-Gro narrative.
Another View: Cash Flows Point to Undervaluation
The user narrative puts fair value at $43.49 and calls Scotts Miracle-Gro overvalued, but our DCF model lands closer to $71.26, with the shares at $60.96. That gap suggests the market could be pricing in more risk than this cash flow view implies. Which set of assumptions do you trust more?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Scotts Miracle-Gro for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 48 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Mixed signals on value and sentiment so far? If you want to move quickly and shape your own view, compare this story with 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
Ready for more investment ideas?
If Scotts Miracle-Gro has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here, use the Simply Wall St screener to quickly surface fresh ideas that fit your style.
- Target value opportunities by checking companies that look mispriced on quality and fundamentals through our 48 high quality undervalued stocks.
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- Prioritise resilience by scanning companies that appear more defensively positioned using the 68 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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