Context for Coeur Mining’s Recent Share Performance
With no single headline event driving attention, Coeur Mining (CDE) has drawn interest after an 8.5% decline over the past day and a 14% drop over the past week, despite positive longer term returns.
See our latest analysis for Coeur Mining.
At a share price of US$19.26, Coeur’s recent 1 day and 1 month share price declines sit against a stronger backdrop, with a positive 90 day share price return and very large multi year total shareholder returns indicating earlier momentum that may now be consolidating.
If this recent pullback has you looking across precious metals, it could be a useful moment to scan a curated list of 7 top silver producer stocks.
With revenue and net income growth in the high teens, an intrinsic value estimate that sits below the current US$19.26 share price, and a large discount to analyst targets, is this recent pullback a chance to buy, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 10.8% Undervalued
According to RockeTeller’s narrative, Coeur Mining’s fair value of $21.60 sits moderately above the latest close at $19.26, framing the current pullback against a higher long term scenario.
Step 2: Free Cash Flow (FCF) Estimation
1. Assumed FCF Margin: 30%.
2. FCF Calculation:
FCF = Total Revenue × 0.30.
FCF = $2,520,000,000 × 0.30 = $756,000,000 USD.
This narrative leans heavily on higher metal prices translating into robust free cash flow, then applying a confident valuation multiple to reach its fair value anchor.
Result: Fair Value of $21.60 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this depends on very specific metal price and margin assumptions. Weaker pricing or higher costs could quickly erode that 10.8% undervaluation gap.
Find out about the key risks to this Coeur Mining narrative.
Next Steps
With both risks and rewards on the table, it helps to see the full picture for yourself and act while sentiment is still shifting. Take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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