CVR Energy overview and recent share performance
CVR Energy (CVI) has drawn fresh attention after a sharp recent move in its share price, with the stock closing at $33.82 and posting notable returns over the past month and past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for CVR Energy.
The recent 51.25% 1 month share price return, on top of a 34.26% year to date share price return and a 59.53% 1 year total shareholder return, points to building momentum as investors reassess CVR Energy's risk and earnings profile.
If you are looking beyond CVR Energy and want other ideas tied to the energy transition theme, it could be a good moment to scan 89 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks.
With CVR Energy trading at $33.82 versus an analyst price target of $26.50, but with an estimated intrinsic discount of about 49%, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 22.2% Overvalued
The most followed CVR Energy narrative pegs fair value at about $27.67 per share, well below the last close at $33.82, and builds its case around operational projects, earnings recovery, and tighter balance sheet assumptions.
The completion of the Coffeyville refinery's distillate recovery project is expected to boost distillate yield by approximately 2% by the end of the third quarter. Increased production capabilities could enhance revenue and profitability through higher product yields and lower RIN obligations.
Want to see what kind of earnings rebound, margin rebuild, and future P/E multiple are baked into that fair value? The narrative leans on a turnaround in profitability, a richer earnings multiple than many refiners, and a long runway for cash generation. The precise assumptions sit under the hood, waiting for you to test them against your own view.
Result: Fair Value of $27.67 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear swing factors, including recent net losses tied to refinery downtime and ongoing RFS and RIN related costs, that could undercut the upbeat case.
Find out about the key risks to this CVR Energy narrative.
Another way to look at CVR Energy's value
The most popular narrative treats CVR Energy as about 22% overvalued at $33.82 versus a fair value near $27.67, using earnings forecasts and a future P/E of roughly 27x. Our DCF model presents a different view, with an estimate of future cash flow value around $66 per share, which places the current price well below that level. When two methods disagree this much, a key question arises: which set of assumptions do you consider more reliable, earnings multiples or long term cash flows?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out CVR Energy for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 52 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Given the mixed signals on value, risks, and potential rewards, this is the moment to look through the numbers yourself and decide where you stand. Start with 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas?
If CVR Energy has sharpened your interest, do not stop here; broaden your watchlist now so you do not miss other compelling setups emerging across the market.
- Target higher potential upside by scanning companies flagged as 52 high quality undervalued stocks and see which ones match your risk and return expectations.
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- Prioritise resilience and capital preservation by filtering for 68 resilient stocks with low risk scores before you commit fresh money.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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