Iran's Foreign Ministry swiftly rejected President Trump's claim of active peace talks—saying there had been "no direct or indirect contact" with the U.S.—but markets rallied anyway, betting on de-escalation.
Trump announced Monday a five-day halt to U.S. military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, citing what he described as "very good and productive conversations" toward a broader resolution of hostilities in the Middle East. He said those discussions would continue throughout the week.
Despite Tehran's denial, investors appeared to take Trump at his word, triggering a sharp relief rally across risk assets, particularly in sectors hit hardest by the conflict.
Relief Rally For Oil, Equities
- By 9:40 a.m. ET energy prices fell sharply:
- West Texas Intermediate dropped 8.25% to $90.13 a barrel.
- Brent crude fell 8.94% to $102.16 — its steepest single-session decline since the war began.
- Gasoline futures fell 7.18%. Natural gas declined 4.70%.
The S&P 500 — as tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) — gained 1.64% to 6,613. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.81% to 46,400.
The Nasdaq-100 — as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) — added 1.95% to 24,363.
Industry-wise, gold miners were the best performers, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) adding 5%, followed by the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE:ITB) and the U.S. Global JETS ETF (NYSE:JETS) both up about 4%.
Polymarket odds on a Strait of Hormuz reopening by April 30 rose on Monday, with odds on the normalization of the maritime chokepoint by the end of April rising to 38%.
It’s worth noting that Trump has repeatedly made misleading claims about the war with Iran—overstating U.S. success, suggesting negotiations that aren't happening, and downplaying Iran’s resistance.
For example, despite claims the war is nearing an end, the U.S. escalated its involvement—deploying more warships and 2,500 Marines, bringing total support forces to around 50,000. While a ground invasion isn't confirmed, the troop buildup and a proposed $200 billion funding request signal a prolonged and potentially expanding conflict.
Stocks Hit Hardest Since The War Began See Sharp Rebounds
Cruise operators led the S&P 500 early Monday. The names hardest hit by Middle East airspace closures and fuel cost surges since Feb. 28 staged the sharpest reversals.
- Carnival Corp. (NYSE:CCL), up 6.01%
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:CCL), up 5.4%
- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (NYSE:RCL), up 4.8%
Prior to Monday, shares of Norwegian Cruise and Carnival Corp. had fallen by 23% since the start of the month.
Other war-impacted S&P 500 stocks experiencing strong daily rebounds included:
| Name | Sector | Month-To-Date Return Before Monday | 1-Day %Chg (As of 9:40 a.m. ET Monday) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UAL) | Airlines | −15.38% | +5.07% |
| Builders FirstSource, Inc. (NYSE:BLDR) | Building Materials | −22.12% | +3.92% |
| Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) | Airlines | −19.65% | +3.64% |
| PPG Industries, Inc. (NYSE:PPG) | Chemicals | −21.13% | +3.60% |
| D.R. Horton, Inc. (NYSE:DHI) | Homebuilding | −17.00% | +3.29% |
| United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE:UPS) | Logistics | −17.33% | +2.05% |
| Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) | Gold Mining | −26.16% | +3.12% |
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