Why MINISO’s new FY2025 guidance matters for shareholders
MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) has issued preliminary FY2025 guidance, flagging revenue of about CN¥21,440 million to CN¥21,445 million, alongside higher operating and adjusted operating profit but a much lower profit for the year versus FY2024.
See our latest analysis for MINISO Group Holding.
The guidance arrives after a weaker run in the share price, with a 30 day share price return of 16.43% and a year to date share price return of 15.96%. The 3 year total shareholder return of 5.88% contrasts with a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 7.89%, suggesting momentum has faded recently even as longer term holders are still modestly ahead.
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With shares down over the past year but trading below some analysts’ targets, and with FY2025 guidance mixing higher revenue with lower profit, you have to ask: is this a reset buying opportunity, or is future growth already priced in?
Most Popular Narrative: 40.5% Undervalued
MINISO Group Holding last closed at $16.38, while the most followed narrative, according to Bejgal, assigns a fair value of $27.52, implying a wide gap between price and narrative value.
Given these factors, it would not be unreasonable to see revenue more than double in the next five years, potentially reaching the RMB 25-30 billion range. This scenario would be driven primarily by the compounding effect of overseas store expansion and enhanced store productivity.
Earnings are likely to grow at an even faster rate than revenue over the next five years due to operating leverage and margin expansion.
Curious what underpins that jump from today’s price to the higher fair value range? The narrative leans on faster earnings, richer margins and a future earnings multiple that is usually reserved for larger global brands. Want to see how those moving parts fit together and what assumptions do the heavy lifting? Read the full breakdown behind this valuation call.
Result: Fair Value of $27.52 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this narrative still hinges on smooth overseas expansion and consistent success with IP collaborations, both of which could easily disappoint and compress margins.
Find out about the key risks to this MINISO Group Holding narrative.
Next Steps
With mixed signals on value, growth and guidance, the picture is not straightforward. It is worth checking the full risk and reward profile now and weighing 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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